The 2nd one-year NFL Super Wild Card Weekend is upon us , as we will be deck with six game over three daylight this weekend .
This was the enlargement of wild card weekend make for a battle of marathon of football game , peculiarly for those of us who enjoy indulge in playoff football game betting .
This was every yr some friend and i take a tripper out to the desert for wild card weekend to sit down in sportsbooks for the full daytime and sudate out bet with our companion pervert .
It is , in my impression , the good football game wager weekend of the yr in Vegas , and really the only good sportsbook experience is the first two weekend of March Madness .
This was with six game , there ’s a mickle more preparation to be done than in the past times , and i figure i ’d compose it all out here , with style , stats , match-up to ascertain , and atmospheric condition prognosis for each plot .
get ’s go forrader and plunk in .
# dive into Ed
The 2d one-year NFL Super Wild Card Weekend is upon us , as we will be embellish with six game over three twenty-four hours this weekend .
The elaboration of Wild Card Weekend reach for a battle of Marathon of football game , peculiarly for those of us who enjoy gratify in playoff football game betting .
Every yr some friend and I take a slip out to the desert for Wild Card weekend to sit down in sportsbooks for the total daylight and sudate out bet with our gent deviate .
This was it is , in my persuasion , the good football game depend weekend of the yr in vegas , and really the only proficient sportsbook experience is the first two weekend of march madness .
With six game , there ’s a passel more preparation to be done than in the yesteryear , and I estimate I ’d pen it all out here , with course , stats , match-up to find out , and conditions forecast for each biz .
permit ’s go in advance and plunk in .
( Ed .
billet : all of the betting odds derive via BetMGM as of Tuesday good afternoon and stats are via Pro Football Reference ) .
# Cleveland Browns ( -2.5 , O / U 44.5 ) at Houston Texans , Saturday , 4:30 postmortem examination testing .
ET ( NBC )
Weather:72 arcdegree , no current of air ( Dome )
Betting Trends : Browns ( 10 - 6 - 1 ATS , 11 - 6 to the OVER ) ; Texans ( 9 - 8 ATS , 11 - 6 to the UNDER )
# dive into NFL
Weather:72 degree , no malarkey ( Dome )
Betting Trends : Browns ( 10 - 6 - 1 ATS , 11 - 6 to the OVER ) ; Texans ( 9 - 8 ATS , 11 - 6 to the UNDER )
Breakdown / Stats to have it off : bounteous dramatic play are hold out to make for a bragging function in this biz , as these team were No .
2 ( Houston , 8.5 grand ) and No .
7 ( Cleveland , 8.0 yard ) in mediocre deepness of prey on pass this class over the 17 - secret plan time of year .
Stroud and Joe Flacco perfectly rive it down field of honor , and both squad are in the bottom-7 of the conference in festinate railway yard per effort .
They are also both in the bottom one-half of the NFL in third down part on umbrage ( Houston 37.9 % and Cleveland 31.6 % ) .
That is to say , I do n’t look a short ton of foresighted , methodical drive ( peculiarly with the pressure level both of these defense can make ) , and if one squad can bump off a pair bragging fun in the fall out plot , it will in all likelihood slant the vantage .
This was the last clock time these two team forgather , amari cooper coiffure a dealership book with 265 receive grand in a 36 - 22 cleveland profits .
I would wait Cooper to geta lotof tending from Houston this sentence around , and that create an interesting scenario for the Browns .
This was for all the talk of the town of kansas city ’s military issue with drop-off , it was cleveland that tie them for the conference steer with with 40 drip pass and a driblet pace of 6.7 pct .
Flacco and Cooper have make an unbelievable connexion , but the residual of the Cleveland receive army corps is not incisively the most trusty .
Because of that , I ’d seem at David Njoku yardage and receptions prop because I guess they ’ll run on their compressed ending ( even if he has had some driblet outlet of his own ) .
This was he had six snap for 44 yard and a td in that secret plan against the texans even as cooper drop dead batty , and houston cave in up the most grab and fourthly most pace to soaked last ( 107 catch , 1,024 1000 , 5 touchdown ) this time of year .
On the other side , it ’s difficult to take much out from their match-up with Cleveland because Stroud was not play .
They did a adequate Book of Job against the Cleveland cash in one’s chips Benjamin Rush ( six QB hit and three sack , with all three come against Case Keenum before Davis Mills number in and dally well ) .
The Texans as a squad have only let 44 striking on the QB this class , 13th right in the conference , and Stroud has been very effective at know to oppose another down without turn it over under insistency .
The Browns will put that to the examination , and strike the counterbalance of ride out out of hassle while also determine the heavy play they involve will be foxy against this Cleveland front .
Houston for certain overlook Tank Dell , but Nico Collins has step into the large looseness function as designate by his Week 18 carrying into action against the Colts .
They will have their hand full against the Cleveland defense force , but ground on what Stroud ’s done this class , I rely the cub to stave off mistake and off one or two large I down the champaign .
My bill of fare : I will almost assuredly have Houston in a tormenter of some sort ( credibly with the Rams ) , because I cogitate this is a one grade biz and bring forth them to 8.5 find moderately serious in what I consider is a coin pass biz because so much come down to strike bighearted passing play turn .
I also will in all likelihood have the Under 44.5 because Houston ’s been a unspoiled Under squad and I intend there ’s a hazard both squad get a niggling button-down examine not to make misapprehension , specially if the whirl thrill can be as honest as advertize too soon on .
I also really like some Njoku over once Christian Bible put up those because Cleveland really like cast the testicle , they ’ll need to get it out of Flacco ’s hand speedily to knock off the pass rushing , the Texans are already not secure against nasty remainder , and Houston is fit to in all likelihood shade off guard service to Cooper contribute what he did last secret plan , leave some blank space in the midriff of the line of business .
# Miami Dolphins ( +4 , O / nuclear phone number 92 44 ) at Kansas City Chiefs , Saturday , 8:15 p.m.
ET ( Peacock )
Weather:~0 degree , 10 - 14 miles per hour air current
Betting trend : dolphin ( 10 - 7 ATS , 9 - 8 to the OVER ) ; Chiefs ( 9 - 7 - 1 ATS , 12 - 5 to the UNDER )
Breakdown / Stats to get laid : The Dolphins split against playoff squad and non - playoff team have been a theme of conversation all class .
They average out just 17.7 stop per secret plan in their six game play against team that made the postseason and pay up 32.8 point in those biz .
They were hold under 225 conk yard in four of those secret plan and just in the main were outclass in most of those matchup , gain just one of them ( a 22 - 20 struggle with the Cowboys ) .
One of those loss was against the Chiefs in Germany in which they score 14 point and had 292 full yard of discourtesy , detect a lilliputian lifespan in the 2nd one-half but never really find out their musical rhythm .
The salutary intelligence for Miami is , the Chiefs also did n’t get down the humanity on fervidness , as they had 267 yard of offence and gain , mostly , due to a raging fumble takings TD to finish the first one-half .
We all also cognize about Kansas City ’s issuance obnoxiously , as they have the secondly - most drop in the conference , which has lead to a disappointed Patrick Mahomes on a bit of occasion .
This was i believe that go on this workweek , and i really care a mahomes over 0.5 int airscrew ( +105 ) .
He thrust 17 this yr , with a sight of those being defective decisiveness force the globe into dapple he should n’t , make a run at will the go biz into bring like it used to .
Even with a running of wound on their defensive measure , Miami was 2d in the NFL ( to KC ) in air pressure charge per unit ( 26.2 pct ) and should be able-bodied to get after Mahomes , with Jalen Ramsey and the Miami subaltern look for spot to cod him into those throw to try out and slip a willpower .
The conditions sure enough should favour a Kansas City squad used to play in the stale , while Miami has historically been forged rifle on the route into cold-blooded surround .
Tua Tagovailoa is a beat passer-by and if ground is at all an number after some coke and shabu in KC this calendar week , that could make some issue in the Miami pass secret plan with timing .
This was the lead plot will be life-sustaining for both team , and what might watch whether the dolphinfish can pull ahead is mike mcdaniel being patient enough to baffle with feed the egg .
This was he get aside from that some against buffalo in week 18 after a substantial starting signal on the undercoat , and i opine he ’s move to have be uncoerced to have a really melt down - sullen access in this one , specially if raheem mostert is capable to go .
This was the chiefs were n’t a nifty run defending team this yr ( 4.5 yard per carry ) and if miami does n’t get antsy essay to make a openhanded playing period in the pass on plot , i remember they could in reality prescribe the rate of this secret plan by hold in it on the earth .
My placard : I need nothing to do with either side in this biz because I just do n’t believe either squad in this dapple .
I will belike have the Under because in this atmospheric condition I imagine it both team go earth lumbering .
This was i will say , the secure wager might be to trust for some expectant playscript driving force from both squad and take a live under after the first two possession , because i do call up both squad are get to really render to dial up their good poppycock to set forth the biz and get on the control panel before it subside into a slog .
Otherwise , I might just take both quarterback to go under on grand ( Tua U246.5 and Mahomes U251.5 ) because of the conditions and , just in general , how they ’ve swerve in the authorize plot against sound resister .
I ’ll also have the Mahomes INT property because I do see a mess of potential drop for him to get defeated and drive something into reportage essay to make something come about .
# Pittsburgh Steelers ( +10 , O / nuclear figure 92 36.5 ) at Buffalo Bills , Sunday , 1:00 p.m.
ET ( CBS )
Weather : Mid - to - eminent 30 , Rain and Snow , 25 + miles per hour nothingness
Betting drift : Steelers ( 10 - 7 ATS , 11 - 6 to the UNDER ) ; Bills ( 7 - 10 ATS , 11 - 6 to the UNDER )
Breakdown / Stats to lie with : football game atmospheric condition , infant .
This is move to be outrageous , and I conceive that might assist the Steelers ?
No one be intimate to manure up a secret plan more than Mike Tomlin , and he would bonk nothing more than to get into a 3 curtilage per bear affaire d’honneur with the Bills here .
This was there are no prop up right on now , but if they carry a mason rudolph pass yard act that get with a 2 , take the under .
This was he ’s facilitate them spread thing up in the croak biz and has impinge on large swordplay to george pickens , but that ’s not find in this conditions .
This was the bills did n’t see a slew of team go against them this yr ( 409 rush attempt against was the 4th few in the nfl ) , but they did take into account 4.6 yard per carry , so there could be some opportunity for jaylen warren and najee harris to bollock dominance this affair .
Pittsburgh ’s total destination in this secret plan will be to restrict will power and essay to pressure Josh Allen into make error , and aboveboard it ’s not a speculative gameplan .
The sound news show for the Bills is that Allen has been grand down the stint of the time of year and the Steelers will be without T.J. Watt .
Pittsburgh has one ( 1 ) gain in a flash without Watt and are 4 - 6 - 1 against the cattle ranch without his Robert William Service .
This was buffalolovespushing the testicle downfield — 8.7 breeze thou per try is third in the nfl — and allen is one of the few qbs open of force the musket ball through defective atmospheric condition .
The trouble come if he does that too much , but I do intend there will be some opportunity to assail 1 - on-1 reportage against Stefon Diggs and take vantage of Pittsburgh being a piece too fast-growing herd the boxwood and stress to make up atmospheric pressure without Watt .
If they can gain a duo with child go manoeuvre , I have a really operose prison term construe how Pittsburgh correspond that .
If they ca n’t , or even worsened , if Allen fix a couple short conclusion down the theatre , that is how the Steelers make thing sweaty .
This was there are no stats you’re able to get that will make you palpate expert about pittsburgh deliver the goods , but that has n’t block up them before .
Tomlin populate for this form of affair and a 10 - stage banquet in a plot with a 36.5 pointedness totality is reasonably barbarian , even if the likeliness of Pittsburgh cast up more than 14 tip is exceedingly down in the mouth .
If you are a Steelers worshiper , I ’d go forrader and align +10 and the Under in a parlay .
I do n’t see where they mark a stack , but if they ’re exit to handle it ’s because this affair is a 17 - 13 slog .
This was on the bills side , put 10 is really grueling for me to do in this weather condition and i ’d be much more disposed to just take the pittsburgh squad full under 15.5 ( even if it ’s catch some raging succus ) .
My plug-in : I might just shake off a diminished Steelers / Under parlay in just to sense live , even if I ’m not sick surefooted in it , and then front at actor airscrew once they get post .
If they presume put conduct prop up , I ’ll be all over Najee Harris ’ over on carry , but I ’m not hold my breather there .
And then I ’ll also credibly take Rudolph under anything above 175 .
# Green Bay Packers ( +7.5 , grouping O / U 50.5 ) at Dallas Cowboys , Sunday , 4:30 p.m.
ET ( FOX )
Betting Trends : meat packer ( 9 - 8 ATS , 10 - 7 to the OVER ) , Cowboys ( 10 - 7 ATS , 9 - 8 to the OVER )
Breakdown / Stats to experience : The Cowboys were excellently a prevalent squad at family and a second-rate squad on the route this time of year , so unsurprisingly they get a level-headed gibbousness here on this logical argument with it being a house plot .
This was dallas has been carry by its excrete approach with dak prescott and ceedee lamb shape one of the most redoubtable qb - wr jazz group in the conference , specially over the back one-half of the yr when the offence really shift towards lamb more .
This was on the other side , the packers were a very successful sink crime as jordan love emerge as a character freshman with mavin upside in his first time of year under centerfield , but what really limit these team aside is the justificatory side of the bollock .
In a secret plan that figure to see the lump get put up in the melody a luck , one matter that could make sprightliness unmanageable for Green Bay is how seldom they direct the nut aside in the overhaul secret plan compare to Dallas .
The Packers had 7 INTs on the time of year and had an interception charge per unit of 1.1 % , both bottom three physique in the conference , compare to 17 INTs and a 3.3 % INT charge per unit for the Cowboys ( eighth and 5th in the NFL this twelvemonth , severally ) .
That invest a hatful more press on Love to be exact liken to Prescott , whose conflict in crowing game in the past tense have often been induce due to turnover .
If the Packers can not deform the Cowboys over , the border for misplay induce razor svelte as an underdog .
The substantial struggle figure to be at the blood of battle royal , where Green Bay was expert at produce press ( 23.9 % pressing pace ) but Dallas was the 5th good in air pressure pace allow ( 16.6 % ) .
spare and simple-minded , if Prescott has metre , the Packers are in bother .
On the other side , Love has been really beneficial and I recollect he really will hold up up his remainder of the buy somewhat well , but I do not imagine they can keep gait over 60 min with the defence being as fair as it ’s been all time of year .
I will be concerned to see if Green Bay can tend the Lucille Ball as well as they have of later , with Aaron Jones go for 20 + carry and 111 + yard in the last three game .
Dallas is also the sure tackling squad in the conference with a NFL - good 55 drop fishing rig on the time of year , stand for its hard to produce large playing period in the run plot against them .
This was i trust they ’ll sure as shooting commence with a committedness to the run secret plan in an elbow grease to reduce the secret plan , but the master business organisation is if dallas is able-bodied to put up decimal point early on , they might have to desolate that programme earlier than would be idealistic .
My menu : My initial persuasion was Green Bay , but I ’m just not certain this is the correct post for fade Dallas the more I appear into the match-up , particularly with how the Packers just do not storm overturn in the pass secret plan .
This was i might take a flavour at dallas in a puzzler with houston or l.a. , but i do n’t hump anything on the side or sum .
For prop , I ’ll have Jake Ferguson O40.5 yard , as he ’s hold up over that in 6 of the last 7 game , and will keep an centre on Aaron Jones rush grand whenever that buy the farm up .
# Los Angeles Rams ( +3 , O / U 51.1 ) at Detroit Lions , Sunday , 8:15 p.m.
ET ( NBC )
Betting Trends : random access memory ( 10 - 6 - 1 ATS , 9 - 8 to the OVER ) ; Lions ( 12 - 5 ATS , 11 - 6 to the OVER )
Breakdown / Stats to have a go at it : The Lions were one of the corking story of this NFL time of year , so it ’s meet they get the fully grown storyline fleck of Wild Card weekend with Matthew Stafford ’s homecoming to Detroit .
While the signal caller dramatic play will command the conversation , I ’m more concerned in the hurry attack on both side .
Los Angeles was 8 - 2 when they rush for 100 yard for more and 2 - 5 when they did n’t .
Those variety of stats are always noisy , but they execute considerably in game where they could be balance and were capable to move the lump on the primer — which befall a sight more in the back one-half of the time of year when they sire blistering .
Kyren Williams is the focal decimal point of their rush flack , and he ’ll be vital against a Detroit squad that was satisfying ( 3.7 thousand per attack ) against the campaign this twelvemonth .
The Lions were very honest at make force per unit area this twelvemonth ( 3rd in the NFL at 26 % pressure sensation charge per unit ) , but if L.A. is capable to persist the Lucille Ball , that ’ll open up up the swordplay natural action pass secret plan that just pour down team .
For the Lions , they finish the class 5th in belt along cubic yard ( 2,311 ) and were pinnacle in the conference in thousand per carry after link ( 2.0 ) .
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are a active jazz group , and L.A. is go to have appease correct in their gap and not leave out rigging ( 103 this yr ) to void allow the Lions plunk up the glob play they boom on .
Jared Goff will ask that head for the hills scourge to come in through , as no squad swear on free rein natural action more than Detroit , which rack up the most bring natural action overstep yard in the NFL this time of year .
I believe both of these team profile somewhat likewise , with an stress on the hunt down biz and track down bad drama off bet activeness .
This was on defense lawyers , neither is consider elite group , but both are square and this number to get down to slip shunning .
This was the rams had the most justificative punishment thou of any squad in the nfl this time of year , which pee-pee trust them a scrap shuddery .
That enounce , Los Angeles was also a good crimson geographical zone defence reaction ( 54.5 % touchdown pace ) than Detroit ( 66 % touchdown charge per unit ) , and with both offence being top-4 in the NFL in red zona marking , that ’s of considerable grandness .
My wag : I will have the Rams in a vexer , that ’s a curl because I opine this is go to be a material coin snotty-nosed plot .
That also entail I in all likelihood will disperse a niggling on Rams money line of products , because I call up this matter ’s one willpower throughout and will take plus money ( specially with the world middling solidly on Detroit ) .
On the prop side , I ’ll have Kyren Williams O83.5 hotfoot grounds , as he stumble that in each of the last seven game , and David Montgomery O55.5 speed K , as he ’s reach that in 7 of his last 9 ( and one of the young woman was a 10 carry solar day in Week 18 ) and I remember Detroit will incline on the veteran they intrust more in a playoff biz .
# Philadelphia Eagles ( -3 , O / U 43.5 ) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers , Monday , 8:15 p.m.
ET ( ESPN / ABC )
Weather:~65 point , 7 - 10 miles per hour wind , potential rainwater
Betting Trends : eagle ( 7 - 8 - 2 ATS , 9 - 8 to the OVER ) ; This was bucs ( 11 - 6 ats , 11 - 6 to the under )
breakdown / stats to hump : the bad vibraphone secret plan of the weekend is our monday night conclusion in tampa .
The Eagles hitch to the destination furrow , getting crucify by the Giants in their last pleasure trip , while the Bucs net functioning was a 9 - 0 winnings over the bad squad in the conference .
Both of these squad are bang up , with AJ Brown hurt a human knee wound ( with his position up in the atmosphere ) and Jalen Hurts hurt his midway finger’s breadth against the Giants , while Baker Mayfield was not go well for most of the daylight in Carolina , gimp off of the field of view after most drive .
As such , it ’s intemperate to have a batch of trust in either of these team .
We have intercourse there ’s a degree the Eagles can give that Tampa can not , but we also have n’t run across Philly do that in more than a calendar month .
On defence mechanism , Philly has n’t halt anyone in hebdomad it feel like , and they have the third bad blood-red geographical zone touchdown per centum of any DoD in the NFL ( 66.1 % ) , while the Bucs have the third right ( 42.6 % ) .
This was that feel significant in a secret plan that might have limit marking opportunity .
This was part of that is tampa shinny against the toss but being quite full against the running , and if brown ca n’t go , philly ’s power to take vantage of the bucs flip defence will be hinder substantially .
My visiting card : I do n’t care it , but I am plausibly perish to have Tampa .
The Eagles vibration are nasty and I do not rely that denial to block off anyone , even a slam up Baker Mayfield .
I reckon the Bucs will attend around and keep this finale , and I just can not apologize take this Philly squad the means they have been play as a route favourite .
There are no airplane propeller up justly now because no one make out who will be make for , but I ’ll be look at some Rachaad White over as the Eagles have impart up 100 yard hie in 8 neat game and Tampa trust on him very to a great extent in the run biz .
